Widespread Speculation over Edward Snowden's fate

As Hong Kong authorities remain silent on the whereabouts of US whistle-blower Edward Snowden, political and legal experts are speculating his potential fate and weighing in on the options available to the 29-year-old former intelligence contractor.


If Snowden wanted to stay in Hong Kong, his best chance would be to apply for refugee status, under the claim that he could be subjected to torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment (CIDTP) or punishment if extradited back to the United States, said Patricia Ho, a solicitor with local human rights law firm Daly and Associates.


Ho said that there is an arguable case for Snowden facing CIDTP with reports about the treatment of Bradley Manning. Manning, whose trial started last week, has been held in solitary confinement, made to strip naked at night, and checked every five minutes, causing the US to be formally accused of violating his human rights by UN special rapporteur on torture Juan Mendez.


Hong Kong does not grant asylum itself, but allows those seeking it to stay indefinitely until they are able to find a country willing to host them. A request for asylum would also trump any US extradition requests. However, the US has yet to charge Snowden for leaking the information he claims to have provided to the Washington Post and The Guardian, but the US Justice Department has confirmed that criminal investigations are being undertaken.


Cosmo Beatson, founder of Vision First, an organisation that helps refugees in Hong Kong, said he didn't think claiming refugee status is a viable option for Snowden.


"He'll have to surrender his passport, and he'd have to stay in Hong Kong until his claim is settled. I don't see him wanting to give that up if he's being chased," said Beatson.


He added that since 1992, only four out of 12,500 such claims have been approved.


"It is not so much up to the Hong Kong government to do much, after all the Chinese authorities probably have a say in this," said Joseph Cheng Yu-shek, a professor of political science at City University, referring to a clause in Hong Kong's 1998 extradition treaty with the US, which gives Beijing a veto in extraditions if it believed its national interests would be compromised.

"Why not give him asylum?" said a senior European diplomat. "A human rights case in which the Chinese grant asylum to an American - what a master stroke for Beijing."