China loosens one-child policy

As part of President Xi Jinping’s efforts to lay the basis for China’s prosperity over the next decade, Bejing’s new ruling regime has watered down the one-child policy in a historic shift.

The decision was taken at a summit of the Party’s elite leadership earlier this week. According to documents released by the regime on Saturday, from now on, Chinese couples in which one of the parents is an only child will be permitted to have a second baby. This is expected to affect 10 million Chinese women, who would now have the opportunity to have a second child.

The decision is in line with an existing trend towards relaxing the rules, with one previous relaxation being that couples in which both parents are only children are allowed to have an extra child. But this decision, having emerged from the first major policy meeting of the new administration of Xi Jinping, is especially significant in China’s approach to its population. Moreover, a growing number of wealthy families have recently opted to defy the policy and pay the heavy fines imposed instead.

The one-child policy was introduced in 1979 when former leader Deng Xiaoping was throwing open the doors of the country to foreign investment. It was deemed a necessary measure to allow the Chinese economy to grow sustainably and to avoid social chaos, which the country had regularly experienced over the previous century.

Chinese officials claim that the policy has reduced the Chinese population by some 400 million and that this has helped China achieve its rapid economic growth over the past three decades, as well as ease the pressure on the country’s highly polluted environment.

However, independent demographers have questioned this claim, pointing out that the Chinese birth rate was already falling before the one-child restriction came into force, and that the Chinese would have opted to have smaller families anyway as their incomes rose, as in the situation in other fast-developing countries.

Nevertheless, the consensus is that the policy probably reduced the population by at least 100 million. Yet, the policy has created problems.

Human rights groups say the policy has led to brutal forced abortions and sterilisations. The traditional preference for sons and the development of ultrasound scanning have also made it possible for selective abortions, which is perhaps one of the reasons for the growing gender imbalance in China. At present, there are six baby boys born for every baby girl.

But the most crucial concern for the government is that the one-child policy has worsened the problem of ageing in the society, which brings with it economic and fiscal problems. At the moment around 10% of the population is over 65, but based on current trends, that percentage could reach 25% by the middle of the century. Paying for the care of that expanding cohort of elderly people will be increasing burden on China’s working population, which is already contracting thanks to the low birth rate. Today, there are 5 taxpayers to every pensioner but by the end of the next decade 2 taxpayers would be supporting one pensioner. The Chinese government fears that without an increase in the birth rate the country’s economic catch-up with the developed world could be hindered.